Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has challenged the longstanding belief that Bitcoin halving events drive the crypto cycle. In his view, the standard four-year cycle is irrelevant. He is talking about a bigger transition in the crypto market based on institutional adoption, an increase in crypto treasury strategies, and structural growth factors. His comments are consistent with recent research and on-chain data and suggesting that the market has transitioned to a more stable, long-term growth mode.
Institutional Adoption Redefines the Crypto Cycle
Hougan claims the old pattern tied to the Bitcoin halving has become outdated. Historically, halvings sparked bull runs by reducing supply. But now, large-scale institutional interest plays a bigger role. A study by the National Bureau of Economic Research in 2023 indicated that net institutional investment in crypto had increased by 150% since 2020.
This continued flow of capital from institutions clearly shows the market no longer depends on supply shocks to start trends upward. Instead, long-term investment strategies and diversified exposure are pushing the crypto cycle into new territory. Hougan refers to this shift as a “steady boom”—a term highlighting how institutions prefer sustainable returns over hype-driven volatility.
Bitcoin Holdings by Public Companies Hit Record Levels
In July 2025, Cointelegraph’s analysis indicated that 35 or more publicly traded companies own more than 1,000 BTC apiece. This surge in corporate adoption illustrates a more mature market where long-term strategy feeds into the predicament of not being reliant on speculation. Executives now view Bitcoin not as a risky asset, but as a viable balance-sheet option.
The image of a suited executive standing next to a bitwise and American flag reflects this sentiment—crypto is no longer fringe. This visual narrative mirrors a financial ecosystem where Bitcoin ownership becomes mainstream across traditional institutions. These large BTC holdings further detach the market from its past reliance on halving-driven supply shocks. Instead, the focus has shifted to demand stability and corporate alignment.
Bitcoin Halving Loses Predictive Power Amid Market Shifts
Hougan emphasizes that while Bitcoin halving events still occur, their influence on price movements has diminished. Previous cycles depended heavily on the reduced mining rewards to spark excitement and drive rallies. But in the current climate, the response has been muted.
This change supports the idea of a maturing market where supply-side triggers no longer dictate price dynamics. Instead, long-term investors and corporate treasuries are building sustained support levels. The Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index reinforces this, showing stable mining activity that reflects market confidence rather than speculative surges. As a result, the halving’s role in timing market cycles is becoming symbolic rather than practical.
A Maturing Market Signals End of Boom-and-Bust Era
Hougan’s vision of a steady boom aligns with recent structural developments. Crypto is now seeing consistent engagement from financial institutions, which anchor market behavior. The traditional boom-and-bust narrative no longer holds. Volatility still exists, but sharp peaks and crashes are less common.
The steady increase in corporate bitwise ownership, consistent miner behavior, and reduced reliance on halving-based events all point to a calmer growth phase. In Hougan’s view, the crypto cycle has become a function of trust, strategy, and professional management. This new landscape presents a maturing market—one moving toward long-term capital accumulation and away from speculative mania.
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