Emerging from Telegram’s vast ecosystem, Toncoin (TON) has rapidly evolved into a top-tier layer-1 contender with unique social integration advantages. This technical analysis dissects Toncoin price action through three critical lenses. Exchange reserve fluctuations (tracking Telegram’s gradual wallet integration), on-chain staking dynamics, and the token’s distinctive “V-shaped” recovery patterns. We identify key liquidity zones around TON’s 50-day and 200-day EMAs, levels that have consistently acted as institutional accumulation points. With TON’s price increasingly reacting to Telegram’s Web3 adoption milestones. This analysis equips traders to navigate both technical breakouts and ecosystem-driven volatility in this rapidly maturing asset.
Toncoin Price Analysis of August 17, 2025
On August 17, 2025, Toncoin (TON) traded within dynamic intraday patterns, opening with a range that broke upward at 04:05 IST, supported by a golden crossover of MACD. Despite the spike, weak momentum led to the formation of a downward channel, which broke lower at 05:40 IST before stabilizing into a range. The failed downside breakout set the day’s low at $3.435. A strong upward move followed, with successive channels forming at 07:55 IST and 10:15 IST, both supported by golden crossovers, pushing TON to its daily high at $3.500. Later, a downside breakout signaled possible continuation toward $3.400.
Chart 1: TON/USDT M5 Chart, Analysed by Vallijat007, published on TradingView, August 17, 2025
- The TON price formed a range, which broke out to the upside at 04:05 IST, supported by a golden crossover of MACD. The Toncoin price spiked to the upside, but momentum was weak, and the price formed a downward-moving channel.
- The downward-moving channel broke out to the downside at 05:40 IST, supported by a death crossover of MACD, and a range developed. The range tried to break out to the downside, but the breakout failed, marking the low for the day at $3.435.
- The range broke out, moving to the upside at 07:55 IST, supported by a golden crossover of MACD, and formed an upward-moving channel.
- The channel broke out to the upside at 10:15 IST, supported by a golden crossover of MACD, and formed another upward-moving channel. The channel marked the high for the day at $3.500.
- The upward-moving channel broke out to the downside at 01:05 IST, supported by a death crossover of MACD.
- If the breakout succeeds, the Toncoin price may drop to the $3.400 level. If the breakout fails, the price may rise to the $3.600 level.
TON Gains Institutional Support Amid Mixed Technicals
Toncoin is gaining traction as a serious player in the crypto landscape, with institutional adoption helping build confidence in its future trajectory. On 11 August, Coinbase Ventures revealed holdings in TON, joining venture capital heavyweights such as Sequoia and Ribbit Capital. While the scale of the investment remains undisclosed, the move enhances TON’s legitimacy as the backbone of Telegram’s blockchain ecosystem. This backing reduces regulatory concerns and aligns with the project’s mission of onboarding Telegram’s expansive user base. Speculation around potential Coinbase Custody integration adds another layer of anticipation for investors who view institutional partnerships as a green light for future adoption.
On the technical side, TON is hovering at $3.50, maintaining levels above its thirty-day simple and exponential moving averages. Momentum indicators, however, paint a more neutral picture. While the token is testing the key Fibonacci resistance at $3.57, failure to break this line could trigger a retracement toward $3.39. Traders are watching closely for a confirmed daily close above resistance to unlock further upside targets.
Institutional Backing Strengthens TON’s Long-Term Outlook:
Toncoin’s technical structure reflects mixed momentum, yet institutional adoption is reinforcing its broader narrative. Coinbase Ventures’ recent TON holdings join Sequoia and Ribbit Capital, elevating confidence in TON’s role as Telegram’s blockchain backbone. Speculation around Coinbase Custody adds further optimism, while integration of wallets and NFTs into Telegram strengthens its ecosystem. At $3.50, TON trades above key moving averages but faces resistance at $3.57. A close above this level may unlock upside toward $3.60 and beyond, while failure risks retracement to $3.39. Supported by institutional capital and innovative utility programs like the UAE’s Golden Visa, TON’s long-term trajectory remains promising.
Toncoin Price Analysis of July 23, 2025
The Toncoin price formed an upward-moving channel, which marked the high for the day at $3.429. The moving channel broke out to the downside at 00:45 IST, supported by a death crossover of MACD; price spiked to the downside and formed a range. The range broke out to the downside at 02:50 IST; the price spiked to the downside and formed another range. The range again broke out to the downside at 04:10 IST, supported by a death crossover of MACD; the price spiked to the downside, and another range developed.
Chart 1: TON/USDT M5 Chart, Analysed by Vallijat007, published on TradingView, July 23, 2025
- The range again broke out to the downside at 05:55 IST, supported by a death crossover of MACD; price spiked to the downside and formed a converging triangle pattern.
- The converging triangle pattern marked the low for the day at $3.272. The pattern broke out to the upside at 09:40 IST, supported by a golden crossover of MACD; price spiked to the upside and formed a range.
- The range broke out to the upside at 13:35 IST, supported by a golden crossover of MACD, and the price spiked to the upside.
- If the breakout succeeds, then the price may rise to the level of $3,600. If the breakout fails, then the price may drop to the level of $3,200.
Toncoin (TON) Accelerates Ecosystem Growth Despite Market Correction
Toncoin is taking a step further in blockchain innovation by releasing Tolk 1.0, which includes 40% cheaper gas fees and powerful DeFi and gaming tools. This improvement gives TON the level of efficiency and developer accessibility that makes it a competitive Layer 1 platform.
Further boosting adoption, the TON Foundation has partnered with Crypto.com to integrate staking, Jettons, and stablecoin support, while its deep integration with Telegram’s 900M-user ecosystem enables fast, low-cost transactions. This mass-market reach could drive exponential growth in 2025.
Despite these bullish developments, Toncoin saw a -2.68% dip to $3.10, with trading volume down -25.54% to $285.89, likely a short-term pullback in a volatile market.
With scaling upgrades, major exchange support, and Telegram’s vast user base, Toncoin remains a high-potential project. As adoption accelerates, TON could see renewed upward momentum.
Toncoin Builds Long-Term Value Despite Near-Term Dip:
Toncoin’s fundamentals remain strong despite short-term technical pullbacks. The Tolk 1.0 upgrade, featuring a 40% reduction in gas fees and enhanced DeFi/game dev tools, strengthens its Layer 1 capabilities. Strategic partnerships with Crypto.com and integration with Telegram’s massive 900 million-user base improve accessibility, staking, and token support. The price decreased by -2.68% to $3.10 and volume by -25.54%; this does not indicate that the project is weak but shows the volatility of the market. Technically, the rebound off 3.272 indicates that there are bullish recovery prospects. Deeply supported by the ecosystem, Toncoin is set to actively develop in the long run, and a breakout above $3.600 may happen within the short term with newly restored investor curiosity.
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